The Ifs Of History
Joseph Edgar Chamberlin
23 chapters
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23 chapters
PREFACE
PREFACE
Whether or not we believe that events are consciously ordered before their occurrence, we are compelled to admit the importance of Contingency in human affairs. If we believe in such an orderly and predetermined arrangement, the small circumstance upon which a great event may hinge becomes, in our view, but the instrumentality by means of which the great plan is operated. It by no means sets aside the vital influence of chance to assume that "all chance is but direction which we cannot see." For
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IF THEMISTOCLES HAD NOT BEATEN ARISTIDES IN AN ATHENIAN ELECTION
IF THEMISTOCLES HAD NOT BEATEN ARISTIDES IN AN ATHENIAN ELECTION
Mithra instead of Jesus! The western world Zoroastrian, not Christian! The Persian Redeemer, always called the Light of the World in their scriptures; the helper of Ahura-Mazda, the Almighty, in his warfare with Ahriman, or Satan; the intercessor for men with the Creator; the Saviour of humanity; he, Mithra, might have been the central person of the dominant religion of Europe and modern times, but for certain developments in Athenian politics in the years between 490 and 480 B. C. For it is tru
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IF THE MOORS HAD WON THE BATTLE OF TOURS
IF THE MOORS HAD WON THE BATTLE OF TOURS
The most tremendous contingencies in all history—the determination of the fate of whole continents, whole civilizations, by a single incident—are sometimes the occurrences that are most completely and signally ignored by the ordinary citizen. For instance, it does not occur to the man on the street that but for a turn in the tide of battle on a certain October day in the year 732, on a sunny field in northern-central France, he, the man on the street, would to-day be a devout Mussulman, listenin
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IF KING ETHELRED OF ENGLAND HAD NOT MARRIED THE NORMAN EMMA
IF KING ETHELRED OF ENGLAND HAD NOT MARRIED THE NORMAN EMMA
Not much turns upon the marriage of kings in these days. The German Kaiser is not the less German assuredly because his mother was an Englishwoman. Nor did her marriage to the Crown Prince of Prussia give Prussia or Germany the slightest hold upon England. It was altogether different in an earlier day. One royal marriage in particular, that of King Ethelred the Redeless, the "Unready," of England, to Emma, the daughter of Richard the Fearless, Duke of Normandy, in the year 1002, exercised upon B
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IF COLUMBUS HAD KEPT HIS STRAIGHT COURSE WESTWARD
IF COLUMBUS HAD KEPT HIS STRAIGHT COURSE WESTWARD
On the morning of the 7th day of October, 1492, Christopher Columbus, sailing unknown seas in quest of "Cipango," the Indies, and the Grand Khan, still held resolutely to a course which he had laid out due to the westward. This course he held in spite of the murmurings of his crew, who wished to turn back, and contrary to the advice of that skilled and astute navigator, Martin Alonzo Pinzon, who commanded the Pinta . Pinzon had repeatedly advised that the course be altered to the southwestward.
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IF QUEEN ELIZABETH HAD LEFT A SON OR DAUGHTER
IF QUEEN ELIZABETH HAD LEFT A SON OR DAUGHTER
Never did greater events hinge upon a woman's caprice against marriage than those which were poised on the will of Elizabeth, Queen of England, in the long years that lay between the time when, as a young queen, it was proposed to marry her to the Duke of Anjou, and the sere and yellow leaf of her womanhood, when her potential maternity was past. If Elizabeth had married, as her people often implored her to do, and if her progeny had sat upon the throne and continued the sway of the Tudors, half
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IF THE PHILARMONIA HAD NOT GIVEN CONCERTS AT VICENZA
IF THE PHILARMONIA HAD NOT GIVEN CONCERTS AT VICENZA
For the sake of variety, perhaps of diversion, in the midst of more serious speculations, let us have an "if" of musical history—and one which, no doubt, musicians may regard as purely fanciful, totally absurd. It should be stated at the start that this chapter is written by one who has no knowledge of music, but is capable of a very keen enjoyment of it, and has in his time heard much professional music—many concerts, operas and oratorios—and also much of the spontaneous untrained music of the
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IF THE SPANISH ARMADA HAD SAILED AT ITS APPOINTED TIME
IF THE SPANISH ARMADA HAD SAILED AT ITS APPOINTED TIME
When Philip the Second, son of the great emperor Charles V, came to the throne of Spain, that country had become the greatest cosmopolitan empire in the world. The throne of Castile, at one time or another during Philip's reign, was the throne not only of Spain and Portugal, but of the Netherlands and Burgundy, the Sicilies, Sardinia, Milan, Cuba, Hispaniola, Florida, Mexico, California, nearly all of South America, and the Philippine Islands. The Spanish monarch was the eldest son of the church
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IF CHAMPLAIN HAD TARRIED IN PLYMOUTH BAY
IF CHAMPLAIN HAD TARRIED IN PLYMOUTH BAY
On the 18th of July, in the year 1605, Samuel de Champlain, in command of a ship of the King of France, and engaged in the search for an eligible site for a great settlement, anchored in the harbor which was afterward to be known as the harbor of Plymouth, in New England. Two days before, he had been in Boston Bay. He mapped both these havens, and expressed his approval of the physical resources, and also the native Indian peoples, of the region. At that time the coast of New England was really
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IF CHARLES II HAD ACCEPTED THE KINGSHIP OF VIRGINIA
IF CHARLES II HAD ACCEPTED THE KINGSHIP OF VIRGINIA
Once at least the New World has furnished to the Old World a reigning, actual king; once, for thirteen years, a monarch, sitting on a throne in America, ruled thence an ancient kingdom in Europe. And twice this singular thing might have happened, with this time an enthroned sovereign on the banks of the James instead of on the shore of a Brazilian bay, if a certain king's son and king-to-be had been of a somewhat more venturing and less indolent disposition. The occasion when the thing really ha
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IF ADMIRAL PENN HAD PERSISTED IN DISOWNING HIS SON WILLIAM
IF ADMIRAL PENN HAD PERSISTED IN DISOWNING HIS SON WILLIAM
When an English father, irascible and opinionated, disowns and turns out of doors a son who has not only disobeyed him but proved false to the traditions and obvious interests of the family, he is very apt to adhere to his action. A very great deal turned upon a case, once, in which an English father, after making a very firm show of disowning his son, at last relented and took him back to his heart. Pennsylvania, to wit, turned upon it; and all the amazing success of William Penn's great experi
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IF THE BOY GEORGE WASHINGTON HAD BECOME A BRITISH MIDSHIPMAN
IF THE BOY GEORGE WASHINGTON HAD BECOME A BRITISH MIDSHIPMAN
One summer day, in 1746, a British ship of war lay in the Potomac River below the place where the city of Washington now stands. The officers of the ship had been visiting at Mount Vernon, which was the residence of Major Lawrence Washington, adjutant-general of Virginia. No vessel of the royal navy entered the Potomac River without a visit on the part of its officers to Major Washington's house. He had been in the king's service at the siege of Cartagena and elsewhere. Admiral Vernon was his fr
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IF ALEXANDER HAMILTON HAD NOT WRITTEN ABOUT THE HURRICANE
IF ALEXANDER HAMILTON HAD NOT WRITTEN ABOUT THE HURRICANE
"He thought out the Constitution of the United States and the details of the government of the Union; and out of the chaos that existed after the Revolution raised a fabric every part of which is instinct with his thought." So said one of his contemporaries, Ambrose Spencer, of Alexander Hamilton; and another said: "He did the thinking of his time." The thinking that Hamilton did for the young American republic was of the most tremendous and vital importance to it. His services as a financier we
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IF LA FAYETTE HAD HELD THE FRENCH REIGN OF TERROR IN CHECK
IF LA FAYETTE HAD HELD THE FRENCH REIGN OF TERROR IN CHECK
In every age of the world, and in every place, one voice has always commanded in the affairs of nations, peoples and communities. If oligarchies, legislatures, groups or cabals have seemed to bear sway, it has nevertheless been true that in each of these groups, from time to time, the influence of some individual has been preponderant. The freest republics are an organization of this principle—a willing submission of the many to the leadership of chosen men. In times of stress and strife and cha
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IF GILBERT LIVINGSTON HAD NOT VOTED NEW YORK INTO THE UNION
IF GILBERT LIVINGSTON HAD NOT VOTED NEW YORK INTO THE UNION
How many Americans of the present day realize that the State of New York, at the time of the adoption of the national Constitution, was radically and overwhelmingly opposed to entrance into the Union which the Constitution proposed, and was at last forced into the league of States only by the demonstration that the State would be isolated and cut off from its neighbor States if it did not join, with a tariff wall raised against it? It is indeed hard for New Yorkers to realize, as they live to-da
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IF THE PIRATE JEAN LAFITTE HAD JOINED THE BRITISH AT NEW ORLEANS
IF THE PIRATE JEAN LAFITTE HAD JOINED THE BRITISH AT NEW ORLEANS
After the battle of New Orleans, on the 8th of January, 1814, General Andrew Jackson, the victorious commander, called before him a certain officer, of dashing and Frenchy appearance, and publicly thanked him for the important part which he had borne in the battle. To judge from the signal honor done to this man, the credit for the victory was in no inconsiderable part due to him. And, indeed, this was the case. The man to whom the victor's thanks had been thus conspicuously awarded was Jean Laf
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IF JAMES MACDONNEL HAD NOT CLOSED THE GATES OF HUGOMONT CASTLE
IF JAMES MACDONNEL HAD NOT CLOSED THE GATES OF HUGOMONT CASTLE
According to the Duke of Wellington himself, the success of the allies at the Battle of Waterloo turned on an amazingly slight contingency, namely, the closing of a gate or door of wood in the wall of a building. This fact was conclusively brought out when, years after the battle, an English clergyman, Rev. Mr. Narcross of Framlingham, died and left in his will the sum of five hundred pounds simply "to the bravest man in England." The executors of the estate were completely nonplussed. Who was t
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IF ABRAHAM LINCOLN'S FATHER HAD MOVED SOUTHWARD, NOT NORTHWARD
IF ABRAHAM LINCOLN'S FATHER HAD MOVED SOUTHWARD, NOT NORTHWARD
The two sections in the Civil War in America were led by two men, Abraham Lincoln and Jefferson Davis, the one President of the United States and the other President of the Confederate States, who were born within about one hundred miles of each other in the State of Kentucky, and within nine months of each other in point of time. For it was in June, 1808, that Jefferson Davis first saw the light in Christian County, Kentucky, and in February, 1809, that Abraham Lincoln was born in Hardin County
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IF SKIPPER JENNINGS HAD NOT RESCUED CERTAIN SHIPWRECKED JAPANESE
IF SKIPPER JENNINGS HAD NOT RESCUED CERTAIN SHIPWRECKED JAPANESE
Toward the end of the year 1850, Captain Jennings, of the American bark Auckland , trading in Asiatic waters, picked up the shipwrecked crew of a Japanese fishing vessel, somewhere off the coast of Japan. The captain was then bound for the new port of San Francisco, which the California gold-diggings had already made an important city. He continued on his course, and in due time—that is to say, very early in the year 1851—landed at San Francisco with his party of refugees. Here the bright little
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IF ORSINI'S BOMB HAD NOT FAILED TO DESTROY NAPOLEON III
IF ORSINI'S BOMB HAD NOT FAILED TO DESTROY NAPOLEON III
Edward A. Freeman wrote, after the fall of the second Bonaparte empire: "The work of Richelieu is utterly undone, the work of Henry II and Louis XIV is partially undone; the Rhine now neither crosses nor waters a single rood of French ground. As it was in the first beginnings of northern European history, so it is now; Germany lies on both sides of the German river." This was not by any means the whole of the work wrought by that adventurer on an imperial throne, Napoleon III, through his disast
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IF PRESIDENT BUCHANAN HAD ENFORCED THE LAW IN NOVEMBER, 1860
IF PRESIDENT BUCHANAN HAD ENFORCED THE LAW IN NOVEMBER, 1860
Speaking of the lighting of the fires of civil war in this country in the years 1860 and 1861, Charles Francis Adams said, in 1873, "One single hour of the will displayed by General Jackson would have stifled the fire in its cradle." The metaphor in the last phrase is peculiar, and strangely Celtic for a Yankee, but the history is true. Montgomery Blair expressed the idea with greater plainness and vividness in that same year, 1873, in these words, "If we could have held Fort Sumter, there never
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IF THE CONFEDERATES HAD MARCHED ON WASHINGTON AFTER BULL RUN
IF THE CONFEDERATES HAD MARCHED ON WASHINGTON AFTER BULL RUN
There have been a great many attempts to excuse or minimize the failure of General Joseph E. Johnston to follow up the tremendous Confederate victory won by his second in command, General G. T. Beauregard, at Bull Run, July 21, 1861. That the Federal army was beaten literally to a pulp there can be no doubt. General Irwin McDowell, who commanded the Union forces, officially reported, after the battle, that all his troops were in flight "in a state of utter disorganization." "They could not," he
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IF THE CONFEDERATE STATES HAD PURCHASED THE EAST INDIA COMPANY'S FLEET IN 1861
IF THE CONFEDERATE STATES HAD PURCHASED THE EAST INDIA COMPANY'S FLEET IN 1861
In the preceding chapter I have noted the disastrous consequences of the rejection of John H. Reagan's plan, urged at Montgomery at the very foundation of the Confederacy, for the prompt occupation of the south bank of the Ohio River as the advanced line of defense, and the equally unfavorable result of the failure of Johnston to press on to the Potomac after the great success at Manassas. Gettysburg was a pivotal combat, also; for if Lee had been supported by Stuart's cavalry on that occasion,
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